Imaginary and socio-ecological prospective scenarios

Prospective scenarios are narratives. They outline possible futures, which may be more or less desirable depending on individual perceptions, and therefore constitute narratives that engineers consciously or unconsciously subscribe to. Prospective scenarios offer narratives that describe, with a given objective (e.g. carbon neutrality in France by 2050), the socio-political trajectories for achieving it.

Every action taken as part of an engineering approach is inevitably part of a narrative. For example, some engineering projects support a pro-growth vision focused on progress towards high-tech solutions, while other engineering projects can be described as degrowth-oriented, focused on values of social conviviality and low-tech solutions. No project comes out of nowhere, without a socio-technical context and without consciously or unconsciously fitting into societal narratives. And each, in its own way, contributes to maintaining existing societal narratives or creating new ones.

Being aware of the narratives we are part of and those we want to move towards is already a step towards making more informed choices.

• Consider the consequences of each engineering choice using various criteria: environmental, social, technical, ethical, etc.

  • Certain prospective scenarios focusing on socio-ecological issues enable the impacts of certain technical choices to be studied in a quantified and sourced manner over different time scales and across spatial territories.

• Breaking down barriers between certain ‘technical’ issues by integrating them into more interdisciplinary approaches

  • Engineering approaches sometimes only include technical, material, temporal and financial dimensions, and sometimes lack more multidisciplinary approaches combining humanities and social sciences with engineering sciences. As technologies are not neutral, it is important to view technical systems as part of socio-technical narratives rather than as autonomous systems evolving independently of political will or cultural narratives. (CF : Article sur la thèse TAC (Technologie Comme Anthropologiquement Constitutive)^[1])

• Enabling the emergence of alternatives that break away from dominant narratives

  • As prospective scenarios are scripted and problematised resources, they can serve as concrete tools for making possible projections. Thus, if we consider that certain dominant social narratives are the cause of socio-ecological crises, it becomes easier and more feasible to imagine how to move towards alternative narratives by formalising different possible trajectories.

Let's get to the heart of the matter: prospective scenarios!

What are the existing prospective scenarios?

Several forward-looking projects can be cited at the French national level.

• The PTEF (French Economic Transformation Plan), whose central issue is: what needs to be done to bring the French economy into line with a 5% annual reduction in global emissions, in line with our climate commitments, while enabling everyone to find a job?

• The Negawatt scenario aims for carbon neutrality by 2050 with a focus on the energy mix to be achieved.

• The ADEME's four scenarios aiming for carbon neutrality by 2050 with a sectoral approach (agriculture, housing, digital, consumption, transport, etc.).

• The Shift Project's test scenarios on low-carbon, resilient and prosperous agriculture.

• The Red Team's scenarios on defence innovation policy.

At the international level, there are:

• IPBES scenarios and models focused on biodiversity issues, creating archetypal scenarios that consider the impact of socio-economic developments on interdependent nexuses (health, biodiversity, climate, access to clean water, etc.).

• The IPCC's Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) scenarios, with a primary focus on the consequences of climate change based on the trajectories of our societies towards carbon neutrality.